Russia Could Attack a NATO Country Within Months, Danish Intelligence Warns
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has warned that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia within the coming months, while stressing that the overall risk remains low but is growing. The assessment was published on September 24 as European governments face increasing concerns over sabotage, cyberattacks and other forms of Russian activity.
Danish Intelligence Sees Growing Risk of Limited Attack
The DDIS said Russia is becoming more willing to take risks against NATO and Western countries. A limited military operation could involve isolated drone or missile strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine, rather than a large-scale invasion.
Another scenario outlined by Danish intelligence involves a small number of Russian troops entering territory in a neighboring NATO country, potentially without national insignia. The assessment says such an operation could be designed to create uncertainty over who was responsible for an attack and test how NATO would respond.
Full-Scale Russian Invasion Still Considered Highly Unlikely
The warning does not mean Danish intelligence believes a major Russian invasion of NATO is imminent. DDIS said it sees no current indications that Russia is preparing an outright invasion of one or more NATO countries. If Moscow decided to launch such an operation, the agency estimates that it would require at least six months to build up the forces necessary for a large-scale attack.
The assessment instead focuses on smaller military actions that could potentially be conducted with less preparation and at a lower scale.
NATO Border Countries Face the Most Direct Risk
The countries potentially exposed to the scenarios described by DDIS include NATO members bordering Russia, such as Finland, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Danish intelligence said Moscow could attempt to exploit uncertainty or political divisions within NATO. DDIS chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said a limited operation would not necessarily be intended to seize an entire country, but could instead seek to test the alliance's willingness to respond collectively.
Russia Expected to Increase Hybrid Operations
The more immediate concern identified by Denmark is an intensification of Russia's hybrid campaign against Western countries.
DDIS expects more frequent sabotage, destructive cyberattacks and other covert operations against NATO members, potentially causing greater consequences than previous incidents.
The warning comes amid a series of incidents across Europe that governments have investigated for possible Russian involvement. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement in sabotage operations and hybrid attacks against NATO countries. Russia's embassy in Denmark also rejected the latest Danish assessment as unsupported by credible evidence.
NATO Increases Intelligence Sharing
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, said the alliance is increasing intelligence sharing in response to recent incidents and described the possibility of a limited Russian attack as unlikely but something that cannot be ruled out.
The Danish assessment therefore points to a security environment in which NATO countries are preparing for a broader range of potential Russian actions, from cyberattacks and sabotage to isolated military strikes, while Danish intelligence continues to assess a full-scale invasion as highly unlikely.
Author: Kevin Macmellon
